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As global warming melts the world's ice sheets, rising sea levels are not the
only danger. Viruses hidden for thousands of years may thaw and escape - and we
will have no resistance to them. Last
week, the latest study to track global warming revealed that Alaska's snowless
season is lengthening. As the world warms and ice-sheets and glaciers begin to
melt, most of us worry about how the earth will respond and what kind of impact
climate change will have. Will flooding become a regular feature, or is the land
going to become parched? Are hurricanes and typhoons going to spring up in places
they have never visited before? Is the rising sea level going to swallow some
of the world's most fertile farmland, along with millions of homes? All
of these are valid concerns, but now it turns out that the impact of global warming
could be worse than we first imagined. Ice sheets are mostly frozen water, but
during the freezing process they can also incorporate organisms such as fungi,
bacteria and viruses. Some scientists believe that climate change could unleash
ancient illnesses as ice sheets drip away and bacteria and viruses defrost. Illnesses
we thought we had eradicated, like polio, could reappear, while common viruses
like human influenza could have a devastating effect if melting glaciers release
a bygone strain to which we have no resistance. What is more, new species unknown
to science may re-emerge. And it is not just humans who are at risk: animals,
plants and marine creatures could also suffer as ancient microbes thaw out.
In 1999, Scott Rogers from
Bowling Green State University in Ohio and his colleagues reported finding the
tomato mosaic tobamovirus (ToMV) in 17 different ice-core sections at two locations
deep inside the Greenland ice pack. Gentle defrosting in the lab revealed that
this common plant pathogen had survived being entombed in ice for 140,000 years.
"ToMV belongs to a family of viruses with a particularly tough protein coat, which
helps it to survive in these extreme environments," says Rogers. Since
then Rogers has found many other microbes in ice samples from Greenland, Antarctica,
and Siberia. And this has turned out to be just the tip of the microbial iceberg.
Over the last 10 years biologists have discovered bacteria, fungi, viruses, algae
and yeast hibernating under as much as 4km of solid ice, in locations all over
the world. Most
recently Rogers and his colleagues found the human influenza virus in one-year-old
Siberian lake ice. "The influenza virus isn't quite as hardy as ToMV, but this
finding showed that it is capable of surviving in ice," says Rogers. This particular
strain of influenza had only hibernated for one year and doesn't present much
of a threat to humans, but it shows that there is potential for a human virus
to survive the freezing process for much longer. Imagine if older, more vicious
strains, such as the virus responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed
somewhere between 20 and 40 million people in 1918 - 1919, were to re-emerge.
Not all scientists
are convinced by these viral discoveries, and some argue that they are more likely
to have arrived in the ice via contamination during the drilling process. However,
Rogers is confident that this is not the case. "We use a chemical called sodium
hypochlorite to decontaminate the outer ice surface, which is then followed by
extraction or melting of an interior section of the core," he explains.
So if these viruses have
been huddled in the ice for thousands of years, how did they get there in the
first place? According to Rogers one very effective way for viruses to travel
the world is to hitch a ride in the guts of migrating birds. "The Siberian lake
ice where we found the human influenza virus is on a bird migration route. This
is the most likely way that the virus arrived," he says. Other modes of transport
could include riding on aquatic mammals such as seals, clinging to grains of dust,
or water transport via rivers and ocean currents. "Human
beings have been more prevalent in northern areas for a long time and so human
viruses are more likely to have been frozen into Northern Hemisphere ice sheets,"
says Dany Shoham, one of Rogers' colleagues from Bar-Ilan University in Israel.
Humans have lived close to glaciers in the European Alps, frozen fjords in Scandinavia
and frosty Siberian lakes for thousands of years, making it an easy hop for viruses
looking for a place to hibernate for a while. None the less, Shoham says that
this doesn't mean the ice sheets of the Southern Hemisphere don't contain viruses.
Thankfully, not all viruses
will remain viable after thawing out from hibernation in an ice sheet. "We routinely
keep viruses at minus 80C when we want to store them in the lab, so viruses can
certainly survive freezing, but they are often fragile to processes such as freeze-thaw,"
explains Geoffrey Smith, head of the virology department at Imperial College London.
In the lab it is possible to defrost viruses gently, but outside they are subject
to climatic extremes. Only viruses that contain the tough protein coat, like ToMV,
are likely to be able to retain all the information they need while being repeatedly
frozen and defrosted. This rules out plenty of human viruses, but still leaves
a few very nasty options including smallpox, polio, hepatitis A and, of course,
influenza. Shoham
believes that the influenza virus is the most likely to emerge from the freeze/thaw
process in a fit enough state to re-infect humans. "It has the properties that
would allow it to survive the ice and the ability to transfer between animals
and humans once it is out," he says. What is more, Shoham contends that an ancient
version of human influenza could be a very potent weapon. "Ancient viruses are
more dangerous because the natural herd immunity is reduced over time. After just
one or two generations the natural herd immunity is eliminated," he says. Water-borne
viruses, such as hepatitis A and polio, are less of a threat because they rely
on water currents to reach their victims. One
worrying scenario would be the creation of a super virus via the recombination
of ancient and modern strains. "If only one or two genes from an ancient influenza
virus were to interchange with the modern avian influenza, it could become contagious
and generate a new pandemic," says Shoham. By
hiding in the deep freeze for a few thousand years, viruses could be avoiding
unfavourable conditions on the earth's surface, such as hosts with a strong immunity.
Rogers and his colleagues think that these icy holidays may even be a deliberate
part of viral evolution. Equally, the same argument could mean that it is harder
for a virus to slot back into the world once it has been defrosted. "Evolutionary
change over time may mean that an emerging ancient virus finds it difficult to
adopt a niche," says Shoham. If
viruses do hide away in ice-sheets periodically, then there should be evidence
of pandemics occurring during the earth's warmer periods in the past.
"It may be possible to relate
historical extinction events with outbreaks of specific pathogens like influenza
and cholera," says Rogers. As yet no research team has managed to prove this link,
but it is something that Rogers and his colleagues are keen to investigate further.
So how much of a
risk do these frozen viruses really represent? Without having any definite evidence
that viruses are able to complete the full freeze-thaw cycle and go on to re-infect,
it is hard to say. Some scientists are not too concerned, while others think it
is worth looking into. "It
is certainly conceivable that viruses can survive frozen for thousands of years,
but it is not top of the list of my worries. We have enough to think about with
the number of dangerous viruses at high concentration around today," says Geoffrey
Smith. Meanwhile,
Dany Shoham believes that the potential consequences are too dire to be ignored,
but agrees that there is little we can do to protect ourselves. "The
likelihood of infection from an ancient virus is, in general, low, but once it
does take place the impact will be enormous," he says. "None the less, this freezing
mechanism is so complex, vague and unpredictable that there is really nothing
we can do to protect ourselves." Perhaps
the only grain of comfort is that this won't be the first time that viruses have
emerged from the ice. We must have survived such an event before. |